TEA SNEAK PEEK for Census Tract Unemployment Rates:
What you want to know for EB-5 Project Certification in 2017
It’s that time of year again where our clients start to ask us: will our EB-5 project still qualify as a TEA once states change from CY15 to CY16 data in the coming months?
Use our new Sneak Peek map to help answer that question!
Sneak Peek Map Released
Using the most recent data available, we’ve made a new map to illustrate what census tract unemployment rates will likely look like as we go through the yearly data-transition this spring.
2016 data will soon replace 2015 data – and while the 2016 data is not officially finalized yet, the majority is available to provide reasonable approximations, within a small margin of error, of what the unemployment rates will be at the census tract level. This map provides census tract unemployment estimates based on the most up-to-date data available (currently through December ’16 county data, which is pending finalization by BLS).
Watch our video to see the best ways to use our Sneak Peek Map:
Want to know if your project is likely to qualify as a TEA once the new data is finalized in the coming months?
As navigating the TEA waters can be complex, and might get more complicated, we would be happy to review a project location for no charge – and, guess what!, we can also give you a free preliminary job creation estimate to help you determine if EB-5 is right for your project.
New National TEA Threshold (150% of Nat’l Rate) will be 7.4% (Calendar Year 2016)
Does the Map Address Potential Legislation or Regulatory Changes to TEA Definitions?
Importantly, this map is not meant to predict the outcome of possible changes to the TEA rules and regulations. While it is possible that the TEA rules and regulations could change in the near future, most legislative proposals, as well as the proposed rules by DHS, still have census tracts as the main building block for high unemployment TEAs (in some shape or form). It therefore appears likely that census tracts will continue to be a key component of TEA designations, and we believe it is important to look ahead at how the data will change in the coming months.
But will we still be able to combine tracts? How many?
The answer to this is still unclear. The bigger question still appears to be how much combining/aggregating of tracts will ultimately be allowed. Currently, the amount of combining/aggregating of contiguous census tracts is left up to the states, but it is unclear how that might change.
About the Map’s Data
The census tract unemployment rates shown in our Sneak Peek map are based on preliminary data for calendar year 2016. While we don’t anticipate much fluctuation between these preliminary rates and the final rates, these calculations are meant to approximate what the census tract rates are likely to be once the data is finalized by the BLS.
The information presented in the Sneak Peek map is intended to approximate the data that most states will be using for TEA designations beginning in April/May of 2017. It is based on census-share methodology utilizing finalized data from the American Community Survey, 2011-2015 and the county-level data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that is available for 2016 (January – December 2016*).
*December ‘16 is preliminary. January ‘16 through November ‘16 is finalized